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Showing posts from September, 2012

What's in store for the 4th Quarter of the 4th year during the Great Recession

There are many theories about the direction of the stock market for the rest of the year. General economy is not looking up, however. Housing is bottoming, or so the experts think. There are still huge inventories, something like a 11-month supply of new homes. Existing home values are trending higher compared to 6 months ago. Consumer confidence may be building, but primarily this is due to false optimism about the US Presidential election outcome. No idea what the connection is! A reputed analyst suggested if the stock market is at its highest now since late 2007, inspite of the corporates barely able to squeeze any top end growth, he thinks the slightest 4th quarter good news can catapult the markets higher. This seems ridiculous and may be short lived. Remember we have not done anything for the fiscal cliff that is right around the corner. Its a daunting task and the can is getting kicked down the road. Added to this, unemployment signs are not encouraging, entitlements are gett

From Race to the Riches to Race to the Ditches

In my recent visit to India, I was more disillusioned than delighted to see the rate of the civil society changing. Numerous people, presently, in my estimate 6 out of 10 have leaped out of deprived riches and money in the last 4-5 years. They have just been bestowed with this sudden wealth that can pale what people have in developed economies! The wealth-building is good but there are collateral damages to society. One of the most disturbing trends I noticed was that there is a terrrible decline in respect, decency and moral values in civil society. I call this phenomenon "PEOPLE'S RACE TO THE RICHES LEADING TO A MORAL RACE TO THE DITCHES". I can identify three reasons: 1) Indians are hard working, and take care of their family to the fullest possible extent, but, this has eroded, because money is easier to come by than before. Hard work and little money has given way to easy work and fast & big bucks, sometimes even at the cost of (extrended) family's wel