Money Talk

Its really weird that when I wrote my Part I on this topic, I had some notes for Part II but how soon my notes become a thing of the past and something new emerges which is more "weightier" than the previous. By now you might have figured where I am going with this. Yes, its the hurricane, Irene. Not just because its a hurricane and it is headed towards the East Coast of the US. The bigger thing is, for the first time in the history of the USA, the Mayor of New York City has ordered evacuations in Manhattan - the financial capital of the world. That's huge, and what with all the power disruptions, infrastructure failures, not to mention the direction the stock market will tend to follow in the coming week/s. Ben Bernanke's talk at Jackson Hole, Wyoming seems dwarfed by the impact of Irene. Anyway he did not have much tangible to offer other than chiding the Congress to act! Who knows what that meant. I wanted to really talk a little about the European Bank crisis. I...

Its been wild to say the least. Economy, Sovereign debt, Budget Deficits, Jobless Numbers, Industrial Production, Consumer Spending, House Prices, Assets, Stocks, Markets, and the list goes on. Every guy on the road knows what these terms are these days because it is being played out in our every day lives. I have hardly heard any assuring voice with a mature thought. It appears education and experience is just as good as a novice's  throw of dice idea of one should do in such a situation for both the short term and long term. I am disappointed honestly at the intelligentsia of this great country (US) and the corridors of knowledge, not to mention the seasoned brains of experience that lay scattered all over the breadth and lengths of this vast land. When we lose money in stocks, retirement funds, we are made to believe we don't have anyone to blame except ourselves because the investment decision is ours. This is a way how corporate and financial managers shi...

World is busy absorbing many recent events, some sad, some good, some extremely good and understandably so. Its no surprise Japan is out of the news radar but not from the realities of the recent nuclear disaster. Many leading auto companies such as Honda and Toyota have had the greatest damage to their bottomline. The damages to the economy is still fresh. No one has the knowledge when these would be restored. Some say 6 months some say more than a year. It is so strange to me that Japan is still able to retain the number 3 position economically inspite of the 10 year long recession. Comparatively, US has almost emerged out of its recession in less than 3 years. That is some resilience. Economic drivers has a big role to play in this emergence. The biggest being the Debt that US has boldly taken upon itself. Its going to be a long time that US will see economic normalcy return. But for now incomes are growing and so also the spending. Lucky for those who still have an income s...

BTN and HOOK I covered in Sep last year have been pretty interesting on the rear view mirror now. BTN has lost about 8% as of now but had been hovering 10% higher or lower from the price point at about $8.20 from back then.  HOOK on the other hand has seen a very good uptick going from about $8 then to above $9 and about 10% but the good news is that its trend is strongly rising while BTN is either flat or moderately lower. Both stocks are in my kitty as good buys even at this price for a yearly gain of atleast 25%.

I have to report of two stocks Vasco Data Security (VDSI) and Hansen Natural (HANS) that have been steadily going up inspite of all gyrations in the market in the last 2 years after the recovery took hold. Third one is really a smart pick too, Reliance Steel (RS). I see a 50%, 25% and 20% upside respectively in the next 3-5 months. These three companies are all in excellent niche business environments for the present and may have very little negative impact from the current goings-on in the world.

I see some sharp reversals but a broad rally till the end of second quarter. Taking short positions in select tech and commodities stocks would be something to consider but prepare for a major reversal after 3 months. There are some daunting realities that US has to face....debt and deficit reduction and debt limits. There are estimates suggesting the indices could lose upto 50% from its current levels....ouch that could really hurt. So keep an eye on 50-day moving averages for reversals.

Japan is such a worry for the world currently as much for its own leaders. Radiation leaks into air, water and materials can find its way into almost everything from grains, vegetables, animals, meat, milk, sea food, fruits and finally into human beings over time indirectly and without warning as people may be taking in smaller quantities over time, what could prove to be highly risky or even fatal. Hypothetical as that may sound, there is nothing hypothetical about the thousands of lives lost and thousands more missing due to the direct impact of this month's tsunami.  The economic loss has been pegged at a whopping $300 billion! The US, which has twice or more of the GDP of Japan is still unable to square its deficits or debt obligations. And the US after having injected several rounds of stimulus funds borrowed from China and Japan among others still finds no light at the end of this long debt tunnel. One of the biggest of all stimuluses was the c...